S&P 500 Weekly Analysis: Still below 7500 Line in the Sand

Week 30, 2026 | -0.6% | -2.7% below all time high

• The S&P 500 closed the week below the critical 7500 point zone.
• The 7500 level continues to serve as the structural line in the sand.
• The S&P 500 remains within an active cycle of weakness from June 23 to July 28 where an expected 2% to 5% correction is shown by the green box on the chart.
• This expected correction target was fully met with the successful retest of 7300 at the end of June.

Daily Technicals
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The S&P 500 has now basically gone nowhere in ten weeks.

• Bullish at 7300.
• Bearish at 7500.

Short Term Risk

• No signal this week.
• The sell score increased this week but has not yet triggered a sell signal.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Long Term Risk
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Risk level change
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from very high to low risk due to a model change.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Seasonality

• Very strong July.
• Seasonality suggests a very strong Q3 start, followed by weakness in August and September.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: