S&P 500 7500 Breakout: Target Set to 7800?

Week 22, 2026 | +1.5% | +20.0% since March low

• The S&P 500 staged a strong push higher this week to clear the critical 7500 resistance zone.
• This upward move signals the end of the mid-May correction and heavily reduces the probability of an additional 2% to 4% drop during the current cycle of weakness ending June 9.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7500 level has transitioned into major support and provides a solid foundation for the next advance toward the 7800 point target.

• Bullish at 7500.
• Bearish at 7800.

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• No signal this week.
• Buy and sell score decreased and leave room for new signals

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from high to very high risk in mid May 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk at the end of April 2026.

Seasonality

• Weak May and June
• Seasonality suggests a strong Q2 start, followed by weakness in May and June.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: