S&P 500 Weekly Analysis: 7800 Rejection & Support Watch

Week 35, 2026 | +0.5% | -1.5% below all time high

• The S&P 500 slowly crawled toward 7800 this week but faced another rejection there on Friday.
• The main question remains whether the S&P 500 retests 7500 before breaking above the 7800 zone, which still stands as strong resistance.
• The next cycle of weakness looms from August 28 to October 16, suggesting a 4% to 9% correction indicated by the green box on the chart.

Daily Technicals
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7500 mark stands as the next key support zone to the downside.

• Bullish: 7500 Zone
• Bearish: 7800 Zone

Short Term Risk

• No signal this week.
• Buy and sell score decreased and leave room for new signals.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals appear as vertical lines. Light green lines indicate buy signals that occurred while the system was already at target allocation.
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Long Term Risk
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Nol change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted to low risk in mid July 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Seasonality

• Weak August.
• Seasonality suggests a very strong Q3 start, followed by weakness in August and September.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: