S&P 500 Weekly Analysis: New Buy Signal & 7800 Rejection

Week 43, 2026 | -0,3% | -2.7% below all time high

• A new buy signal triggered this week.
• The market had a strong start to the week following the recent sell-off.
• The index made another test of the critical 7800 point zone and faced another rejection from it.
• We expect the S&P 500 to form a bottom within its cycle of weakness window from October 19 to November 10, indicated by the green box on the chart.
• Critical dates lie ahead with the Fed FOMC meeting next week and the Midterm elections the week after.

Daily Technicals
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7500 point zone stands as the next strong support level to the downside.

• Bullish: 7500 Zone
• Bearish: 7800 Zone

Short Term Risk

• Buy signal this week  
• The buy score increased this week and triggered a buy signal.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals appear as vertical lines. Light green lines indicate buy signals that occurred while the system was already at target allocation.
Sign up with your email for free to receive buy and sell signals as soon as they occur:

Long Term Risk
Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Nol change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted to low risk in mid July 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Seasonality

• Strong October.
• Seasonality suggests a very strong Q3 start, followed by weakness in August and September.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: