Weekly Update S&P 500

Week 21, 2026 | +0.9% | +18.2% since March low

• The market staged a recovery this week following the rejection of the 7500 point mark last week.
• The S&P 500 has entered a cycle of weakness between May 05 and June 09.
• The expected 2% to 4% correction is probably now finished following the 2.5% decline over this and last week.
• The 7300 level remains untested and represents major support while serving as the primary downside target.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7500 point mark must be broken and closed above to officially end this correctional process.

• Bullish at 7300.
• Bearish at 7500.

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• Sell signal this week.
• The sell score increased this week and triggered a sell signal.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Risk level change.
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from high to very high risk in mid May 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk at the end of April 2026.

Seasonality

• Weak May and June
• Seasonality suggests a strong Q2 start, followed by weakness in May and June.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: