Weekly Update S&P 500

Week 20, 2026 | +0.0% | +17.1% since March low

• A sharp drop on Friday completely wiped out this week’s gains back to 0%.
• The major target of 7500 points was successfully hit but suffered an immediate rejection.
• The S&P 500 has entered a cycle of weakness between May 05 and June 09 where a 2% to 4% pullback is expected.
• The expected 2% to 4% correction may have started on Friday.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
New levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7300 level represents major support and serves as the primary target to the downside.

• Bullish at 7300.
• Bearish at 7500.

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• No signal this week.
• The sell score increased this week but has not yet triggered a sell signal.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk in late March 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk at the end of April 2026.

Seasonality

• Weak May and June
• Seasonality suggests a strong Q2 start, followed by weakness in May and June.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: