Weekly Update S&P 500

Week 18, 2026 | +0.8% | +14.3% since March low

• The sideways consolidation from last week continued through the start of this week.
• A strong push higher occurred on Thursday as the market moved through 7200 resistance.
• A move up toward the 7300 level is likely to occur next week.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
New levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7200 point level has now established itself as support.

• Bullish at 7100 and 7200.
• Bearish at 7300.

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• Sell signal this week.
• The sell score increased this week and triggered a sell signal.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk in late March 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• The long term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk at the end of April 2026.

Seasonality

• Weak May and June
• Seasonality suggests a strong Q2 start, followed by weakness in May and June.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: