Weekly Update S&P 500

Week 17, 2026 | +0.5% | +13.5% since March low

• This is the first pause following an absolutely massive rally over the last three weeks.
• The market is experiencing a correction through time rather than through price.
• The correction resets short term indicators from overbought levels.
• There is now sufficient room for the next leg up in the market.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
New levels marked in red on the chart.
A sideways correction is forming just above the 7100 point support level.

• Bullish at 7000 and 7100.
• Bearish at 7200.

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• Sell signal this week.
• The sell score increased this week and triggered a sell signal.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
Sign up with your email for free to receive buy and sell signals as soon as they occur:

Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk in late March 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted from high to very high risk in mid March 2026.

Seasonality

• Upside movement into May. 
• Seasonality suggests a strong Q2 start, followed by weakness in May and June.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: