Weekly Update S&P 500

Week 14, 2026 | +3.2% | -6.5% below ATH

• The 6500 level was reclaimed as a solid support area. 
• The short-term downtrend (black dashed line) is broken. 
• Significant resistance persists between 6600 and 6700. 
• A new, broader downtrend channel (shaded green, grey, and red) is active. 
• Price has reached a critical decision point following a strong bounce.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
New levels marked in red on the chart.
Primary resistance stands at 6600 and 6700.

• Bullish at 6500
• Bearish at 6600 and 6700

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• Buy signal this week. 
• The buy score increased this week and triggered a buy signal.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | Very High Risk

• Risk level change.
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from high to very high risk.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted from high to very high risk in March 2026.

Seasonality

• Upside movement into May. 
• Seasonality suggests a strong Q2 start, followed by weakness in May and June.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: