S&P 500 Weekly Analysis: Late August Correction Risk

Week 33, 2026 | 0.4% | 6.7% since July low

• The S&P 500 consolidated below the 7800 point zone this week and was unable to break above it.
• A strong rejection from the 7800 level makes the 7500 point zone the next major support to the downside.
• The next cycle of weakness looms from August 28 to October 16 suggesting a 4% to 9% correction indicated by the green box on the chart.

Daily Technicals
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7800 mark stands as the key overhead resistance level that must be broken to unlock further gains.

• Bullish at 7500.
• Bearish at 7800.

Short Term Risk

• No signal this week.
• Buy and sell score decreased and leave room for new signals.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals appear as vertical lines. Light green lines indicate buy signals that occurred while the system was already at target allocation.
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Long Term Risk
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Nol change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted to low risk in mid July 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Seasonality

• Weak August.
• Seasonality suggests a very strong Q3 start, followed by weakness in August and September.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: