S&P 500 Weekly Analysis: 7800 Broken & New Buy Signal

Week 41, 2026 | +1.2% | +7.1% since July low

• The time of writing is prior to the market close on Friday.
• The S&P 500 logged a strong week with a buy signal triggering on Thursday’s close.
• The 7800 point zone was finally broken on a daily basis with follow-through needed next week.
• We are now in October which is seasonality-wise much better than September.

Daily Technicals
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7800 point zone currently stands as the line in the sand.

• Bullish: 7500 Zone
• Bearish: 8000 Zone

Short Term Risk

• Buy signal this week  
• The buy score increased this week and triggered a buy signal.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals appear as vertical lines. Light green lines indicate buy signals that occurred while the system was already at target allocation.
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Long Term Risk
Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Nol change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted to low risk in mid July 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Seasonality

• Strong October.
• Seasonality suggests a very strong Q3 start, followed by weakness in August and September.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: