S&P 500 Weekly Analysis: 7800 Resistance & October Rally

Week 40, 2026 | -0.3% | -1.2% below all time high

• The S&P 500 fell during the week but recovered strongly on Friday. (Before markets close for the week)
• The index seems to make another attempt at the 7800 point zone which acts as strong resistance and has capped price advancement for two months.
• We are now entering October which is seasonality-wise much better than September.

Daily Technicals
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7800 point zone currently stands as the line in the sand.

• Bullish: 7500 Zone
• Bearish: 7800 Zone

Short Term Risk

• No signal this week  
• The buy and sell score did not change in a meaningful way

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals appear as vertical lines. Light green lines indicate buy signals that occurred while the system was already at target allocation.
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Long Term Risk
Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Nol change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted to low risk in mid July 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Seasonality

• Strong October.
• Seasonality suggests a very strong Q3 start, followed by weakness in August and September.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: