S&P 500 Weekly Analysis: FOMC Rejection & Election Focus

Week 44, 2026 | -0.7% | -3.4% below all time high

• Wednesday’s FOMC meeting marked the weekly high at the strong 7800 resistance zone.
• The S&P 500 suffered a strong rejection and lost 3.3% in the second half of the week.
• We expect a bottom within the October 19 to November 10 weakness window shown by the green box on the chart.
• This weekly correction puts the index exactly into the weakness cycle target zone.
• The Midterm elections next week represent a very important date for the market.

Daily Technicals
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7500 point zone stands as the next strong support level to the downside.

• Bullish: 7500 Zone
• Bearish: 7800 Zone

Short Term Risk

• No signal this week.  
• The buy and sell score did not change in a meaningful way.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals appear as vertical lines. Light green lines indicate buy signals that occurred while the system was already at target allocation.
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Long Term Risk
Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted to low risk in mid July 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Seasonality

• Very strong November.
• Seasonality suggests a very strong Q4 after the late Q3 weakness played out.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: