S&P 500 Weekly Analysis: 7800 Breakdown & 7500 Support

Week 42, 2026 | -2% | -2.7% below all time high

• The S&P 500 failed to hold the 7800 point zone this week.
• After breaking the 7800 point zone, strong follow-through selling caused the index to lose over 2% in the second half of the week.
• We expect the S&P 500 to form a bottom within its cycle of weakness window from October 19 to November 10, indicated by the green box on the chart.

Daily Technicals
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7500 point zone stands as the next strong support level to the downside.

• Bullish: 7500 Zone
• Bearish: 7800 Zone

Short Term Risk

• No signal this week  
• The buy and sell score did not change in a meaningful way.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals appear as vertical lines. Light green lines indicate buy signals that occurred while the system was already at target allocation.
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Long Term Risk
Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Nol change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted to low risk in mid July 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Seasonality

• Strong October.
• Seasonality suggests a very strong Q3 start, followed by weakness in August and September.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: