S&P 500 Weekly Analysis: 7300 Retest & July Surge?

Week 26, 2026 | -2% | -3.5% below all time high

• The S&P 500 failed to establish support at 7500 and drops back to test 7300 again.
• The corrective phase since early June aligns very well with seasonality which is weak in June but very strong in July.
• The S&P 500 is currently in another cycle of weakness from June 23 to July 28 where an expected 2% to 5% correction is shown by the green box on the chart.
• This expected correction target is now met.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
Levels marked in red on the chart.
The new target to the upside is 7800 points.

• Bullish at 7300.
• Bearish at 7500.

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• No signal this week.
• Buy and sell score decreased and leave room for new signals.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Risk level change.
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from high to very high.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk at the end of April 2026.

Seasonality

• Very strong July.
• Seasonality suggests a very strong Q3 start, followed by weakness in August and September.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: