Weekly Update S&P 500

Week 19, 2026 | +2.4% | +17.1% since March low

• The strong push higher that started last week continued through this week.
• Markets are drawn to round numbers and 7500 points is now the next major target.
• The S&P 500 has entered a cycle of weakness between May 05 and June 09 where a 2% to 4% pullback is expected.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
New levels marked in red on the chart.
The 7300 point level has now established itself as support.

• Bullish at 7300.
• Bearish at 7400 and 7500.

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• No signal this week.
• Buy and sell score decreased and leave room for new signals

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk in late March 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• The long term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk at the end of April 2026.

Seasonality

• Weak May and June
• Seasonality suggests a strong Q2 start, followed by weakness in May and June.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: