Weekly Update S&P 500

Week 16, 2026 | +4.5% | +12.9% since March low

• Another massive 4% rally pushed the market into new all-time highs.
• The first close above 7000 points establishes this level as strong support.
• A breakout to the upside occurred out of the downward sloping trend channel (shaded green, grey, and red).

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
New levels marked in red on the chart.
Short term indicators are overbought and a small pullback is very likely.

• Bullish at 7000 and 7100.
• Bearish at 7200.

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• No signal this week.
• Buy and sell scores decreased, this leaves room for new signals.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The mid term risk indicator shifted from very high to high risk in late March 2026.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Months)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted from high to very high risk in mid March 2026.

Seasonality

• Upside movement into May. 
• Seasonality suggests a strong Q2 start, followed by weakness in May and June.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: