Weekly Update S&P 500

Week 13, 2026 | -2,8% | -9,4% below ATH

• The 6500 zone broke to the downside, with 6300 as the next strong support.
• The 6500 zone now acts as strong resistance.
• A retest and rejection at the green trendline triggered acceleration to the downside (red circle on the chart).
• The dashed black trendline is expected to act as resistance on any move higher.
• Oversold conditions on the daily timeframe point to a potential bounce.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
Levels marked in red on the chart.
Black dashed trendline is now the line in the sand.

• Bullish at 6300
• Bearish at black dashed trendline and 6500

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• No signal this week
• We expect new buy signals to trigger once a bottom is established.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Month)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The mid-term risk indicator remains in an elevated risk regime.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Month)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• Risk level change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted from high to very high risk in March 2026.

Seasonality
Sideways for first Quarter.

• No change.
• Seasonality suggest bottom in March and a pick up into April.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: