S&P 500: The Big Picture

Hello and welcome to our big picture analysis of the S&P 500. We’re starting here by looking at the monthly and weekly candle charts.

We begin with the long-term trend from 2008 to today. We’re in a very clean rising trend channel, which gives us a good sense of the overall structure. To better understand the significance of certain price levels, we’ve highlighted areas on the chart: green, red, and gray shaded zones acting as trend lines.

The green shaded area represents support, found at the bottom of the trend channel. The red shaded area marks resistance, at the top. The gray shaded areas run through the middle of the channel, often acting as a balance point or intermediate support/resistance.

Three Critical Levels Now Define the Market’s Next Move

The weekly chart continues to present a compelling technical structure. Price remains within the long-term trend channel that originated at the 2009 low. For more than a decade, the green, gray, and red shaded zones have consistently guided market behavior, acting as reliable areas of support and resistance.

The left side of the chart clearly illustrates the 2022 market top, followed by the subsequent decline into the bear market low. During that critical phase, the green shaded area provided exceptional support, forming the foundation for the next major advance. From that low, the market launched into a sustained rally toward the February 2025 high, repeatedly finding support at the green shaded zone, as marked on the chart.

Throughout this advance, the gray shaded area alternated between resistance and support, effectively guiding the entire upward move. Even the sharp correction in April once again found precise support at the green shaded zone, reinforcing the technical reliability of these long-term levels.

Beyond the primary channel, a shorter-term trend channel can be drawn starting from the October 2022 low, describing the current bull run in greater detail. This structure again incorporates the familiar green, red, and gray zones as dynamic boundaries. In April, prices briefly broke below this shorter-term channel but quickly reversed and reclaimed it, signaling continued underlying strength.

Since July 2025, price has been rising at nearly the same angle as the gray shaded zone, once again confirming it as a significant resistance level. This area is extended forward on the chart with a red line and is likely to remain the key upside barrier in the weeks and months ahead.

On the downside, the green shaded area—also highlighted with a red line—marks the most important support within the shorter-term structure. Together, the gray resistance above and the green support below form a narrowing price channel that currently governs market behavior. As long as price remains within this framework, the overall trend still favors the upside. However, the expectation of a larger pullback has not changed.

A correction in the range of 7 to 10 percent would likely bring prices back toward the lower green shaded area marked on the chart. Such a move would represent a technically attractive support zone. From a broader perspective, the strong advance earlier in the year pushed prices into an overextended condition. The past few months have therefore been characterized by sideways consolidation and a gradual grind higher, rather than an immediate correction.

At this stage, three critical areas—each marked with red lines—deserve close attention: the gray shaded resistance zone above, the primary green support zone within the current structure, and a deeper green zone below that could come into play in the event of a full 10 percent correction. The market’s reaction at these levels will likely determine the next major directional move.