Weekly Update S&P 500

Hello everybody, and welcome to this week’s analysis on the S&P 500. I’m writing this shortly after the New York market open on Friday, so not all trading hours for the week are included yet. Still, this week has been quite interesting.

On the 4-hour chart, you can see that last Friday we had the first test of the important 6,900-point zone. We talked about this last week and expected resistance there, followed by a pullback to the strong support area at 6,800 points — and that’s exactly what happened.

With the rate-cut announcement on Wednesday, the market reacted with some volatility. We saw a push higher and another test of the 6,900-point zone on Wednesday, followed on Thursday by a short drop into support at 6,800, which I marked in red on the chart. After this support test, the market pushed strongly higher again on Thursday.

So for now, the S&P 500 is up about 0.2% for the week, but with very dynamic price action — especially the strong bullish move on Thursday. We now have some consolidation around the 6,900-point zone, which could continue and then be followed by another push higher.

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S&P 500 Consolidates Below 6,900 as Market Prepares for Next Breakout

Looking at the daily chart, we can clearly see the decline we had during November and the steep rise that followed. Now we’re in a consolidation phase around the previous highs — the 6,900-point zone. Over the last two weeks, price has been moving sideways here. We had a strong retest of the 6,800-point support zone, which I marked again in red, followed by a sharp rebound.

Now we are trading right inside the 6,900-point area, and after this consolidation, the market should be able to push through it. If that happens, we would be at new all-time highs, and the next major target would be the 7,000-point mark.

I would expect the index to continue grinding higher along the grey shaded trend-line area of the expanding channel. I marked a possible path toward 7,000 in red on the chart. This scenario looks very possible going into the end of the year and into January.

Of course, it’s still possible that the 6,900-point zone acts as resistance again and that we need one more pullback. I think that scenario is less likely, but still possible. If that happens, I would expect a drop toward the green shaded area — the lower boundary of the expanding formation — which would be a potential support zone.

Short-Term Risk Outlook

Finally, looking at the short-term buy and sell score: the S&P 500 is shown in black, the buy score in green, and the sell score in red, with a zoomed-in version at the top. We had a nice buy signal during the November sell-off, which gave us several good entries. Now, after this strong rally, the market has been consolidating for one to two weeks.

As I mentioned last week, a modest sell score buildup was likely — and that’s exactly what we got. You can see a small red sell score forming now, currently around minus 3. We would only start selling positions once it reaches around minus 5, and that hasn’t happened yet. It is possible that this could develop next week, but if we push toward the 7,000-point mark first, we probably won’t see a sell signal until the market becomes more exhausted.

For now, everything looks technically healthy for another move higher. The seasonal pattern also supports this view — the last two weeks before Christmas are often strong due to the Santa Rally effect.

If we reach the 7,000-point mark early next year, that will open the door for a very different scenario where a larger decline becomes possible. But in the short term, everything looks fine.

We also have an article (Update: November 25, 2025) on the broader S&P 500 outlook. From a big-picture perspective, the technicals on the weekly chart are less positive and suggest that another correction could be developing in the coming weeks.

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2025

So far this year, the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 has played out pretty much as expected. The first few months brought some noticeable volatility, which lines up with what we usually see in the early part of the year. Historically, January and February tend to be choppy, and that turbulence can sometimes stretch into March — and that’s exactly what happened this year.

In April, however, we experienced a sharp correction. That move doesn’t align perfectly with the usual seasonal pattern, but it may have represented the weakness that typically shows up in May or June arriving a bit earlier than usual. From that April low, the market rallied strongly through the summer, continuing higher into late July — a period that generally aligns well with historical seasonality.

However, the typical seasonal soft spot in August and September didn’t really appear this year. Usually, those two months bring some volatility or a correction phase, but the S&P 500 instead continued to trade with strength, avoiding any meaningful pullback.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the year — October, November, and December — these months are historically the strongest period of the year for the S&P 500. But given that we’ve already seen such a strong summer rally and skipped the usual correction phase, it’s reasonable to expect that some of that weakness may still be due.

In other words, the correction that typically occurs in late summer might simply have been delayed rather than avoided altogether. That means we could see it emerge in October or November before the market resumes its usual year-end strength.

Seasonality isn’t a perfect roadmap — it rarely plays out exactly the same way each year. But it does offer useful context. Right now, it suggests that while the broader trend remains positive into year-end, a short-term correction could still unfold before the next strong push higher into December.

Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns. Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

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The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.