Weekly Update S&P 500

Welcome to this week’s update on the S&P 500. Not much happened overall, and the index finished the week with a slight gain of 0.4%.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we discussed last week that a retest of the 6800-point zone was likely. As you can see, we had several tests of that area throughout the week—I marked three of them on the chart. These occurred during the week, and in the last two days we saw a small move higher, pushing into the next zone around 6900 points. On Friday, price was rejected there, which I also marked in red.

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Price Drifts Higher Along Key Trendline Resistance

On the daily chart, not much happened either, but there are a few interesting technical developments lining up. This week, price essentially drifted higher right along the lower gray-shaded trend area. This zone comes from one of the trendlines of the expanding formation we have been tracking for several weeks. It acted as resistance throughout the week, and price wasn’t able to break above it. Instead, it moved higher with almost the exact same slope as the trendline—I highlighted this with two red arrows.

We also discussed last week how we are entering the 6900-point region, which lines up with the two previous peaks from November and October. I marked these peaks in red on the chart. This area could create meaningful resistance. The next key question is whether we can break through the 6900 zone or whether we’ll be rejected and pull back toward 6800. I marked a potential rejection scenario with a third red arrow. A move back to 6800 would still be healthy and nothing to worry about.

Short-Term Risk Outlook

Looking at the short-term buy and sell score: The black line is the S&P 500, in green  the buy score and in red the sell score. The last two rises in the buy score (marked in green) generated three buy signals during the November decline, which turned out to be solid entries. As expected, the buy score has now fallen back to a low level. That is normal, since the market is currently in a more neutral state—not overbought and not oversold. Because of that, none of the components of the system are triggering new signals, resulting in a low buy score. This is fine, and it sets up the possibility for a new buy or sell signal.

For now, there’s not much happening on this front. We just need to wait and see what next week brings. As discussed on the daily chart, a small pullback would be normal, and if we get one, it’s possible we see a sell score and some positions opened during the November decline may get closed. We’ll simply have to see how things develop.

We also have an article (Update: November 25, 2025) on the broader S&P 500 outlook. From a big-picture perspective, the technicals on the weekly chart are less positive and suggest that another correction could be developing in the coming weeks.

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2025

So far this year, the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 has played out pretty much as expected. The first few months brought some noticeable volatility, which lines up with what we usually see in the early part of the year. Historically, January and February tend to be choppy, and that turbulence can sometimes stretch into March — and that’s exactly what happened this year.

In April, however, we experienced a sharp correction. That move doesn’t align perfectly with the usual seasonal pattern, but it may have represented the weakness that typically shows up in May or June arriving a bit earlier than usual. From that April low, the market rallied strongly through the summer, continuing higher into late July — a period that generally aligns well with historical seasonality.

However, the typical seasonal soft spot in August and September didn’t really appear this year. Usually, those two months bring some volatility or a correction phase, but the S&P 500 instead continued to trade with strength, avoiding any meaningful pullback.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the year — October, November, and December — these months are historically the strongest period of the year for the S&P 500. But given that we’ve already seen such a strong summer rally and skipped the usual correction phase, it’s reasonable to expect that some of that weakness may still be due.

In other words, the correction that typically occurs in late summer might simply have been delayed rather than avoided altogether. That means we could see it emerge in October or November before the market resumes its usual year-end strength.

Seasonality isn’t a perfect roadmap — it rarely plays out exactly the same way each year. But it does offer useful context. Right now, it suggests that while the broader trend remains positive into year-end, a short-term correction could still unfold before the next strong push higher into December.

Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns. Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

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The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.