Weekly Update S&P 500

Welcome to this week’s article. This week, the S&P 500 had a very slight loss of -0.1%, so overall, not much happened. But when we dig into this week’s price action, there are some interesting developments to note.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that on Friday of last week, there was a nice push upward that tested the upward-rising trend line from below and was rejected. This is marked by the first red circle on the chart. That green trend line originally came from the rising wedge pattern we had over the last couple of weeks, which we had previously broken below. So this was the first test of the trend line from below.

Then, on Monday, we had another strong push up that tested the same green trend line from below for a second time, marked by the second red circle on the chart. After that, we saw a decline through the week — particularly on Tuesday, Wednesday, and especially Thursday. On Friday, there was another nice upward move. Overall, it was quite a volatile, up-and-down week, but in the end, the price closed roughly where it had started.

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Key 6,000-Level Support Still Holds – But for How Long?

When we look at the daily chart, we can clearly see this sideways price action throughout the week. During this period, we violated the upward-sloping trend channel that originated from the April low. You can see the red, gray, and green shaded areas representing this upward trend channel formed by trend lines.

With this recent sideways movement, we’ve now broken out of that trend channel — so that trend is considered broken. However, we are still holding the very important support zone around the 6,000-point area. On Thursday, the market closed below this level, but on Friday, we were able to recover and hold within the support area.

Next week will be important in determining how this situation develops. We’ve been in this 6,000-point zone for several weeks now, ever since we first entered it. There’s been a lot of pushback and several rallies from here, followed by repeated tests of this support area.

The fact that we’ve remained in this zone for such a long time is a strong indication of how important it is. But it’s still undecided whether this area will ultimately act as support or resistance. That depends on whether prices break decisively above or below it in the coming days.

For now, the support zone continues to hold as of this week, and we’ll see again next week how things develop from here.

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2025

So far this year, the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 has played out pretty much as expected. The first few months brought some noticeable volatility, which lines up with what we usually see in the early part of the year. Historically, January and February tend to be choppy, and that turbulence can sometimes stretch into March — and that’s exactly what happened this year.

Looking ahead, the seasonality suggests we’re heading into a stronger period as we move toward summer. Typically, markets see some gains during this stretch, though it’s normal for there to be the occasional correction or sideways move along the way. It’s not a straight line up.

If the seasonal pattern continues to hold, we might expect a bit more volatility in May, June, and again in August and October. These months often bring correction phases or market shake-ups. Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns.

Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

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The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.