Weekly Update S&P 500

Week 12, 2026 | -1,2% | -6,7% below ATH

• The 6500 level is now crucial support.
• The green trendline is broken and now acts as resistance.
• Black trendlines are also expected to act as resistance on any move higher.

Daily Technicals (Next Week)
Levels marked in red on the chart.
6500 is now the line in the sand.

• Bullish at 6500
• Bearish at Green and Black Trendline

Short Term Risk (Next 12 Weeks)

• Buy signals this week
• The buy score increased this week and triggered a buy signal.

Bottom: Buy score in green, sell score in red, S&P 500 in black.
Top right: Zoomed in version. Top left: Buy and sell signals as vertical lines.
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Mid Term Risk (Next 3-9 Month)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | Elevated Risk | Very High Risk

• Risk level change.
• Following an optimization, the indicator now signals an elevated risk regime.

Top: Indicator with internal signals determining risk levels.
Bottom: S&P 500 in black with risk regimes ranging from very low to very high (white, grey, orange and red shaded areas).

Long Term Risk (Next 9-18 Month)
Very Low Risk | Low Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk

• No change.
• The long term risk indicator shifted from low to high risk in mid-March 2026.

Seasonality
Sideways for first Quarter.

• No change.
• Seasonality suggest bottom in March and a pick up into April.

Dashboard
All information summarized in our dashboard: