Weekly Update S&P 500

Hello everybody, and welcome to this week’s analysis of the S&P 500. The index lost 0.6% this week, so it finished slightly lower.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that price first moved higher into the middle of the week and then declined again. Overall, we are still trading between the two key levels: 7,000 on the upside and 6,800 on the downside. The market remains range-bound within this zone.

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Downward Trend Line Continues to Cap the Upside

Now let’s turn to the daily chart we discussed last week. We had identified the downward-sloping black trend line as resistance on the upside and the 6,800 level as support on the downside.

With this week’s price action included, we can see that the downward-sloping black trend line once again acted as resistance. We briefly managed to close above it on Wednesday, but on Thursday price moved back down and was rejected at that trend line. Since then, we have been trading somewhere in between these levels.

You can also see that the last three highs marked on the chart are progressively lower, indicating a short-term downtrend. This confirms the relevance of the downward-sloping resistance line. For the coming week, this trend line remains the key resistance level to watch. On the downside, the 6,800-point zone continues to be the most important support. Both levels are marked on the chart and will likely define price action again next week.

Risk Outlook

Looking at our risk indicators, you can see the S&P 500 in black on the bottom panel, with the buy score shown in green and the sell score in red. The top-right panel provides a zoomed-in view, and the top-left panel shows the resulting buy and sell signals generated by the indicator.

This week, we had another buy signal, as the buy score increased and triggered a new signal. At the same time, the sell score declined and is now back near zero. However, this remains a difficult environment for any indicator, as the market has been moving sideways since November. There is no strong trend, just ongoing range-bound price action. Even so, the indicator continues to generate workable signals within this environment. If you would like to receive these buy and sell signals on a daily basis, you can subscribe to our free newsletter.

Finally, let’s look at the mid-term risk outlook. On the bottom chart, the S&P 500 is shown along with shaded areas representing different risk environments: white for very low risk, gray for low risk, yellow for elevated risk, and red for high risk. We are still in the gray shaded area, which indicates a low-risk environment. It is not a very low-risk environment, but overall risk conditions remain relatively stable. There has been no significant change on this front.

We also have an article (Update: February 19, 2026) on the broader S&P 500 outlook. From a big-picture perspective, the technicals on the weekly chart are less positive and suggest that another correction could be developing in the coming weeks.

For subscribers it is very important to follow our risk management measures that we provide with all our services to protect against losses in case support zones break

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2026

When we look at the seasonality of the S&P 500, the last quarter of 2025 did not line up very well with the typical seasonal pattern. That’s not a problem, though — seasonality should be seen more like a weather model. It gives us a possible direction the market could take, not a precise forecast.

We did see weakness in October, which actually matched the seasonal pattern, as seasonality often points to a softer October. However, we did not get the strong year-end rally that seasonality would normally suggest.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, the seasonal pattern points to potential weakness in January, followed by rising prices in February, with a possible peak during that month. After that, seasonality suggests renewed weakness into March to start the year. We’ll have to see whether the market follows this pattern.

Seasonality isn’t a perfect roadmap — it rarely plays out exactly the same way each year. But it does offer useful context. Right now, it suggests that while the broader trend remains positive into year-end, a short-term correction could still unfold before the next strong push higher into December.

Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns. Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

Track Market Risk with Our Dashboard

Our Market Dashboard provides a quick overview of the current market conditions and, more importantly, the associated risk. You can view a chart of one of our tools, the Risk Level Indicator, showing predicted risk from 1998 to 2025. If you are interested, you can visit our Dashboard site here.

The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.