S&P 500: The Big Picture

Hello and welcome to our big picture analysis of the S&P 500. We’re starting here by looking at the monthly and weekly candle charts.

We begin with the long-term trend from 2008 to today. We’re in a very clean rising trend channel, which gives us a good sense of the overall structure. To better understand the significance of certain price levels, we’ve highlighted areas on the chart: green, red, and gray shaded zones acting as trend lines.

The green shaded area represents support, found at the bottom of the trend channel. The red shaded area marks resistance, at the top. The gray shaded areas run through the middle of the channel, often acting as a balance point or intermediate support/resistance.

Big Picture Analysis: Where the S&P 500 Could Move Next

The weekly chart presents a compelling technical picture. Within the same long-term trend channel that originated from the 2009 low, we observe the familiar green, red, and gray shaded zones that have guided price action for more than a decade. The left portion of the chart shows the 2022 market top, followed by the subsequent low, where the green shaded area provided exceptional support during that critical period.

From that low, the market began a sustained rally toward the February 2025 high. Throughout this advance, price repeatedly interacted with the gray shaded zone, which served alternately as resistance and support and helped guide the entire move. A sharp correction in April once again found precise support at the green shaded area, reinforcing the reliability of these long-term technical levels.

In addition to the long-term trend channel, we can also draw a shorter-term channel that describes the current bull run beginning at the October 2022 low. This shorter-term structure again features the green, red, and gray shaded areas as key trendlines. In April, prices briefly fell out of this shorter channel to the downside, but quickly staged a strong recovery, rising sharply back into the channel.

Since July 2025, prices have been rising at nearly the same angle as the gray shaded area. This move, highlighted on the chart with a red arrow, has once again confirmed this zone as an important resistance level. Looking ahead over the coming weeks and months, this gray shaded region is likely to remain the key upside resistance and is therefore extended forward on the chart as a reference zone.

On the downside, the green shaded area marks the most important support and is also projected forward. Together, these two levels form a narrower price channel that currently guides market behavior. As long as prices remain within this structure, the trend still favors the upside. However, the expectation for a larger pullback remains unchanged.

A correction in the range of 7 to 10 percent would likely bring prices down toward the green shaded area, which would represent a technically strong support zone. Until that pullback materializes, price action may continue to grind higher.

From a broader perspective, the strong advance earlier in the year pushed prices into an overextended state. Over the past few months, this has resulted in sideways consolidation and a grind higher rather than an immediate correction.

At this stage, the chart highlights two critical areas to monitor: the gray shaded zone as resistance on the upside and the green shaded zone as the primary support below. How price reacts around these levels will likely determine the next major move.