Weekly Update S&P 500

Hello everybody, and welcome to this week’s analysis on the S&P 500. I’m writing this shortly after the New York open on Friday, so far the S&P 500 gained 1,2% this week. We’re looking here at the 4-hour chart.

Last week, we discussed the support zone around 6,300 points, which was tested during the late trading hours last Friday. Then, going into this week, prices rose and tested the black trendline, which I’ve marked with a red circle on the chart. We were rejected from that trendline, and into Tuesday we moved lower, retesting the support zone around 6,300 points — also highlighted with a red circle on the chart.

After that, we saw a very strong move to the upside, with big gains on Wednesday that pushed prices above this black trendline. The market held above that trendline on Thursday and so far today, Friday, as well. So, a very nice and strong move up this week after testing the 6,300-point support zone.

As we discussed last week, we expected that prices would likely retest this area before moving higher — and that is exactly what happened.

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Correction Likely: 6,000 Points Could Be the Next Target

Now, looking at the daily chart, we can see the strong move up since the April low and the rising trend channel that has guided this uptrend. To put things into perspective: since the April lows, the S&P 500 has gained over 30%, which is a very strong increase in just three and half months.

We’re now very overbought, even on a weekly level. Signs are beginning to appear that a correction may be coming in the next few weeks. So this might be a good time to consider taking some profits.

On the daily chart, we can see how in the last few days, prices have been creeping along the lower part of the gray shaded area in the middle of the trend channel. There’s not much more upside potential at the moment. The RSI is over 70 on the daily chart — which is another signal that a correction is needed.

It’s possible that prices could still move up for another one or two weeks, but after that, I think we’ll be facing a larger correction.

We currently have three key support zones on the daily chart. First, the light support zone at 6,300 points. Then, the previous all-time high from February 2025, which is around 6,100 points — also a solid support zone. And finally, we have a very strong support area at the 6,000-point mark — a psychologically important round number.

I suspect we will test the 6,000-point level in the coming weeks, perhaps within the next two months. That could be a great opportunity to add exposure again.

For now, there’s not much to do — we’re waiting for a correction to occur. We’ll definitely keep an eye on things over the next few weeks to see how they develop.

If we get a deeper drop, don’t be afraid. Corrections often happen with more volatility — the stock market usually moves slowly to the upside but quickly to the downside.

When that happens, we’ll watch closely how the price behaves at those support zones. That’s the focus for the next few weeks.

For subscribers it is very important to follow our risk management measures that we provide with all our services to protect against losses in case support zones break

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2025

So far this year, the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 has played out pretty much as expected. The first few months brought some noticeable volatility, which lines up with what we usually see in the early part of the year. Historically, January and February tend to be choppy, and that turbulence can sometimes stretch into March — and that’s exactly what happened this year.

Looking ahead, the seasonality suggests we’re heading into a stronger period as we move toward summer. Typically, markets see some gains during this stretch, though it’s normal for there to be the occasional correction or sideways move along the way. It’s not a straight line up.

If the seasonal pattern continues to hold, we might expect a bit more volatility in May, June, and again in August and October. These months often bring correction phases or market shake-ups. Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns.

Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

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The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.