Weekly Update S&P 500

Welcome to this week’s article. We’re looking at the markets about two hours after the New York open on Friday, so the trading week isn’t fully completed yet. On the 4-hour chart, we can see that not much has happened this week — we had a bit of up and down movement, but overall it was a flat week. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 is up just 0.3%, so essentially, it hasn’t gone anywhere and has entered a sideways consolidation phase.

One thing to note on the 4-hour chart is the upward rising trend channel, marked by the black trendline. This line appears to have acted as resistance for the price. The S&P 500’s sideways consolidation has occurred right along the top of this trend channel, suggesting that the upside could remain limited for now.

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Technical Levels Suggest Limited Upside in Near Term

Looking at the daily chart, again, not much significant movement this week. Here we see a longer-term trend channel, in place since the April low. Recently, prices stretched into the upper gray-shaded area of this channel and were rejected from there. That rejection occurred last week, and since then we’ve seen this sideways consolidation phase.

Now, prices are approaching the lower gray-shaded area of the channel, which could potentially offer some support and allow for a slight upward push. However, the market remains overbought, with the RSI still hovering around 70. That typically signals a potential downturn, possibly toward the old all-time high from February, or even lower toward the major support zone around the 6,100-point mark.

So, to summarize: not much happened this week, but we need to be cautious. After this consolidation phase, it’s possible that prices push a bit higher — it’s not guaranteed that a deeper correction is coming right away. We’ve seen similar sideways moves in June that eventually led to new highs. So, patience is key here.

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2025

So far this year, the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 has played out pretty much as expected. The first few months brought some noticeable volatility, which lines up with what we usually see in the early part of the year. Historically, January and February tend to be choppy, and that turbulence can sometimes stretch into March — and that’s exactly what happened this year.

Looking ahead, the seasonality suggests we’re heading into a stronger period as we move toward summer. Typically, markets see some gains during this stretch, though it’s normal for there to be the occasional correction or sideways move along the way. It’s not a straight line up.

If the seasonal pattern continues to hold, we might expect a bit more volatility in May, June, and again in August and October. These months often bring correction phases or market shake-ups. Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns.

Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

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Our Market Dashboard provides a quick overview of the current market conditions and, more importantly, the associated risk. You can view a chart of one of our tools, the Risk Level Indicator, showing predicted risk from 1998 to 2025. If you are interested, you can visit our Dashboard site here.

The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.