Weekly Update S&P 500

Hello everybody. This week, the S&P 500 had a very strong performance, gaining 1.7%. Looking at the 4-hour chart, you can see how the last couple of weeks have been marked by an up-and-down movement—constantly crawling a little bit higher, step by step.

On the 4-hour chart, it’s also clear how prices have been forming a very clean rising wedge pattern, outlined by these green trend lines. The pattern has been respected nicely. However, we’re now at the top of this wedge range, and it’s getting very narrow here. So, we would expect a breakout from the wedge formation soon. The question is: will it break to the upside or to the downside?

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Close Above Resistance Zone for First Time

Switching to the daily chart, we can see how prices developed over the past few days. We’ve previously talked about this upward-rising trend channel with the red, gray, and green shaded areas. Over the past few weeks, we’ve entered a consolidation phase, moving more sideways. The price wasn’t able to break above the red resistance zone, so we saw more lateral movement.

Now, on Friday, we had a very strong green candle that bounced right out of the green shaded area at the bottom of the trend channel, which provided solid support. Thanks to this strong Friday candle, we managed to close above the red resistance zone for the first time—albeit only slightly. You can see that prices approached this zone multiple times in the past and were repeatedly rejected. But on Friday, for the first time, prices managed to close above it.

Now we’ll need to see how that plays out: will this resistance zone flip into support, or will prices get rejected again next week?

All of this aligns with the wedge pattern we discussed earlier—so it’s a very interesting technical setup. We’ll have to see how it resolves in the coming sessions.

For subscribers it is very important to follow our risk management measures that we provide with all our services to protect against losses in case support zones break

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2025

So far this year, the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 has played out pretty much as expected. The first few months brought some noticeable volatility, which lines up with what we usually see in the early part of the year. Historically, January and February tend to be choppy, and that turbulence can sometimes stretch into March — and that’s exactly what happened this year.

Looking ahead, the seasonality suggests we’re heading into a stronger period as we move toward summer. Typically, markets see some gains during this stretch, though it’s normal for there to be the occasional correction or sideways move along the way. It’s not a straight line up.

If the seasonal pattern continues to hold, we might expect a bit more volatility in May, June, and again in August and October. These months often bring correction phases or market shake-ups. Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns.

Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

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Our Market Dashboard provides a quick overview of the current market conditions and, more importantly, the associated risk. You can view a chart of one of our tools, the Risk Level Indicator, showing predicted risk from 1998 to 2025. If you are interested, you can visit our Dashboard site here.

The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.