Weekly Update S&P 500

Hello everybody. This week, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%. We can see what happened on the 4-hour chart. After a drop last week, the market was able to recover. On Monday, the S&P 500 pushed out of the support zone and moved into the overhead resistance area. We saw good gains from Monday through Thursday. But on Thursday, the market reversed and was pushed back from the resistance zone. I’ve marked that reversal with a red circle on the chart. Prices dropped again into the end of the week, but despite that, the index still ended the week with a gain.

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Resistance Zone Holds Firm Again

Looking at the daily chart gives us a better perspective on what’s happening. You can clearly see the April bottom and the strong rally that followed. Over the last two weeks, the market has started to flatten out and move more sideways. We’ve now tested the resistance zone twice—this is the same zone we’ve discussed for the past few weeks. So far, the S&P 500 has not been able to break through it.

Below, we also have two support zones. The upper one has been tested and is holding so far. This puts us in a trading range between the lower and upper support zones and the resistance zone above.

Additionally, we can now draw a trend channel that captures the move since the April low. On the chart, this channel is shown with green, gray, and red shaded areas representing different sections of the rising channel. At the top, we’ve seen several tests of the red-shaded area, which occurred just before the market began its recent sideways movement.

If we continue moving sideways for a few more days, we may soon test the lower green-shaded area of the channel. That should act as support. As long as this trend channel remains intact, the trend is still active and points to further potential upside.

Outlook for the Coming Weeks

Lastly, let’s take a quick look at the weekly chart, which goes back to the second half of 2023. We’ve talked about this in previous updates—how the S&P 500 tested the lower green-shaded area of a long-term upward-sloping trend channel with the April low.

Since then, we’ve seen a strong rally, and the index is now back inside the gray-shaded area of that long-term channel. The big question now is whether the S&P 500 can push through this gray zone and continue its upward move. So far, over the past few weeks, the index has moved into this gray zone but hasn’t been able to break out of it. After last week’s correction, prices dropped back into the middle of this gray shaded area.

We’ll need to see how this develops—whether this zone will act as resistance, causing further downside, or whether the market can break through it.

Also on the chart are several moving averages—specifically the 12, 20, and 30 exponential moving averages. These are shown as teal, green and yellow lines. They do a good job capturing the overall trend, especially on the weekly chart. Right now, all three are converging and lining up closely. I’ve highlighted this with a red circle. Before any solid move to the upside, I would expect the market to come down and test these moving averages. A bounce from there wouldconfirm further strength and continuation of the trend.

So that’s a quick look at the longer-term view as well. We’ll keep watching how things develop in the coming weeks.

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2025

So far this year, the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 has played out pretty much as expected. The first few months brought some noticeable volatility, which lines up with what we usually see in the early part of the year. Historically, January and February tend to be choppy, and that turbulence can sometimes stretch into March — and that’s exactly what happened this year.

Looking ahead, the seasonality suggests we’re heading into a stronger period as we move toward summer. Typically, markets see some gains during this stretch, though it’s normal for there to be the occasional correction or sideways move along the way. It’s not a straight line up.

If the seasonal pattern continues to hold, we might expect a bit more volatility in May, June, and again in August and October. These months often bring correction phases or market shake-ups. Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns.

Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

Track Market Risk with Our Dashboard

Our Market Dashboard provides a quick overview of the current market conditions and, more importantly, the associated risk. You can view a chart of one of our tools, the Risk Level Indicator, showing predicted risk from 1998 to 2025. If you are interested, you can visit our Dashboard site here.

The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.