Weekly Update S&P 500

Welcome to our weekly newsletter on the S&P 500. It was a standout performance across the board—this week, the index gained an impressive 4.7%, driven by fresh optimism in global trade talks.

The rally kicked off with a powerful move on Monday after news broke of a successful agreement between the US and China over tariffs and trade tensions. That announcement lit the spark, and the market jumped hard.

Tuesday kept the momentum going with more gains. Wednesday saw a bit of a pause—but just that, a pause. The bulls were back by the end of the week with more upward pressure.

As you can see in the 4-hour chart, the price has been following a steady upward-sloping trend channel, outlined by green lines. We’re still inside that channel, and so far, there’s no sign of weakness. The trend is intact.

As we’ve said before, the 4-hour chart helps give a good sense of short-term momentum. So even though we had that mid-week pause, the overall structure hasn’t changed. We’re still moving higher, and for now, the trend remains strong.

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Breakout Above Resistance

On the daily chart, we talked last week about a major resistance zone. And with Monday’s breakout, that resistance was blown through. That same area is now acting as support—clearly shown in the green box on the chart labeled “Support Zone.”

What followed was a powerful upward leg. We’re now heading toward the 6,000-point mark, which is where the next resistance zone begins—marked in red on the chart.

This past rally has been fast and strong. The market is stretched and overbought on many levels. Usually, that’s when we start thinking about a potential pullback—maybe next week, maybe the week after.

But we thought the same thing last week, and look what happened: the market didn’t blink—it surged.

Being overbought doesn’t mean a correction is guaranteed. Sometimes, the market just cools off sideways before another leg up. Look at the red circle in the support zone. That’s a small consolidation before the breakout. It’s one way the market handles overbought conditions without giving up gains.

Now that we’re pushing into the next resistance zone around 6,000, a pullback would make sense—but nothing is set in stone. We’ll keep an eye on how the market behaves here.

For subscribers it is very important to follow our risk management measures that we provide with all our services to protect against losses in case support zones break

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2025

So far this year, the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 has played out pretty much as expected. The first few months brought some noticeable volatility, which lines up with what we usually see in the early part of the year. Historically, January and February tend to be choppy, and that turbulence can sometimes stretch into March — and that’s exactly what happened this year.

Looking ahead, the seasonality suggests we’re heading into a stronger period as we move toward summer. Typically, markets see some gains during this stretch, though it’s normal for there to be the occasional correction or sideways move along the way. It’s not a straight line up.

If the seasonal pattern continues to hold, we might expect a bit more volatility in May, June, and again in August and October. These months often bring correction phases or market shake-ups. Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns.

Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

Track Market Risk with Our Dashboard

Our Market Dashboard provides a quick overview of the current market conditions and, more importantly, the associated risk. You can view a chart of one of our tools, the Risk Level Indicator, showing predicted risk from 1998 to 2025. If you are interested, you can visit our Dashboard site here.

The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.