Weekly Update S&P 500

Hello everybody — this week, the S&P 500 experienced a loss of 1.2%.
As you can see in the one-hour chart, this is how things played out: on Monday and Tuesday, the market entered a consolidation phase without much movement. Wednesday brought some losses, followed by a bit of recovery on Thursday.

Also, you can clearly see on the one-hour chart how volatility dropped compared to the wild swings we saw in the weeks before. This week was really about staying in a consolidation phase, with prices moving in a tighter range — a pause after recent volatility.

Our last position, which we placed on March 17th, has been active until March 31th, when we sold it for a loss.
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Market in a Holding Pattern

When we take a look at the daily chart, you’ll notice that we’re still stuck within the range of a bigger red candle from last Thursday.
We haven’t broken out of that range yet, and this is something worth watching. If we do manage to break out of this area, it could kick off the next significant market move. I’ve marked this range using blue dashed lines on the chart. As long as we stay in it, the market might remain in limbo — but once we leave this range, we’re likely to see a more directional push.

Also on the daily chart, you’ll spot the orange horizontal line around the 5,000 level, combined with the green support zone. This is where the market previously bounced, giving us a solid upward move. Since then, prices have settled into another consolidation.

I’ve also brought back the orange downward-sloping trendlines from a couple of weeks ago. They did a great job of capturing the decline that started mid-February. After that sharp drop, the price broke out of the channel, but interestingly, we’re now back inside this trend channel, and those lines still seem to influence the market.
Notice how this week’s movement and the high from the bounce off the support zone are still getting held by these middle orange trendlines. I’ll leave them on the chart for now — they might give us some valuable clues in the coming weeks.

Finally, at the top of the daily chart, there’s a red resistance zone — a very strong one. We haven’t tested it again yet, but I believe this is the key area to watch. If the market breaks through that resistance, it could confirm a continuation of the bull market. But if we get rejected there, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a new low for the year.

That’s all for now — nothing major happened this week, and we’ll have to see how things develop heading into next week.

For subscribers it is very important to follow our risk management measures that we provide with all our services to protect against losses in case support zones break

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S&P 500: Seasonality Insights for 2025

So far this year, the seasonal pattern for the S&P 500 has played out pretty much as expected. The first few months brought some noticeable volatility, which lines up with what we usually see in the early part of the year. Historically, January and February tend to be choppy, and that turbulence can sometimes stretch into March — and that’s exactly what happened this year.

Looking ahead, the seasonality suggests we’re heading into a stronger period as we move toward summer. Typically, markets see some gains during this stretch, though it’s normal for there to be the occasional correction or sideways move along the way. It’s not a straight line up.

If the seasonal pattern continues to hold, we might expect a bit more volatility in May, June, and again in August and October. These months often bring correction phases or market shake-ups. Of course, this isn’t a guarantee — it’s more of a roadmap based on past patterns.

Ultimately, seasonal trends provide valuable context, but they must be considered alongside current market dynamics and technical analysis for a clearer picture.

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Our Market Dashboard provides a quick overview of the current market conditions and, more importantly, the associated risk. You can view a chart of one of our tools, the Risk Level Indicator, showing predicted risk from 1998 to 2025. If you are interested, you can visit our Dashboard site here.

The world of finance is complex and includes many technical terms. For explanations of these terms, I recommend using the Investopedia dictionary.