Last Signal

Since 20.11.2023: Risk Level 1 (Blue)

The macro environment remains negative, with various signals from the RLI increasingly confirming this. My base case scenario is for rising prices until a recession in the USA or a credit event (credit crunch) in the spring of 2024. Especially noteworthy is the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) by the FED, which was launched after the banking crisis last year to support banks that have been struggling due to high interest rates. This program is set to expire in March. The RLI will identify emerging problems in a timely manner and adjust the risk level accordingly. At the moment, a somewhat defensive allocation to stocks is advised.

 

Risk Level System

Risk Level 0 (White):
All good, risk on
80% Stocks, 10% Bonds, 10% Cash

Risk Level 1 (Blue):
Not everything is perfect
60% Stocks, 20% Bonds, 20% Cash

Risk Level 2 (Yellow):
There are serious reasons to be concerned
40% Stocks, 30% Bonds, 30% Cash

Risk Level 3 (Red):
Danger of a crash, risk off
20% Stocks, 40% Bonds, 40% Cash

Last Signal

Since 20.11.2023: Risk Level 1 (Blue)

The macro environment is still negative, and various signals from the RLI are now increasingly confirming this. My base case is rising prices leading up to a recession in the USA or a credit event (credit crunch) in spring 2024. The main thing to keep an eye on here is the FED’s BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program). The program was launched after the banking crisis last year and supports banks that have run into difficulties due to high interest rates. This program expires in March. The RLI will detect emerging problems in a timely manner and change the risk level. A defensive allocation to stocks is recommended at the moment.

 

Risk Level System

Risk Level 0 (White):
All good, risk on
80% Stocks, 10% Bonds, 10% Cash

Risk Level 1 (Blue):
Not everything is perfect
60% Stocks, 20% Bonds, 20% Cash

Risk Level 2 (Yellow):
There are serious reasons to be concerned
40% Stocks, 30% Bonds, 30% Cash

Risk Level 3 (Red):
Danger of a crash, risk off
20% Stocks, 40% Bonds, 40% Cash

Last Signal

Since 20.11.2023: Risk Level 1 (Blue)

The macro environment is still negative, and various signals from the RLI are now increasingly confirming this. My base case is rising prices leading up to a recession in the USA or a credit event (credit crunch) in spring 2024. The main thing to keep an eye on here is the FED’s BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program). The program was launched after the banking crisis last year and supports banks that have run into difficulties due to high interest rates. This program expires in March. The RLI will detect emerging problems in a timely manner and change the risk level. A defensive allocation to stocks is recommended at the moment.

 

Risk Level System

Risk Level 0 (White):
All good, risk on
80% Stocks, 10% Bonds, 10% Cash

Risk Level 1 (Blue):
Not everything is perfect
60% Stocks, 20% Bonds, 20% Cash

Risk Level 2 (Yellow):
There are serious reasons to be concerned
40% Stocks, 30% Bonds, 30% Cash

Risk Level 3 (Red):
Danger of a crash, risk off
20% Stocks, 40% Bonds, 40% Cash

Last Signal

Since 20.11.2023: Risk Level 1 (Blue)

The macro enviroment is still nevative. Different signals of the RLI ar starting to confirm that. My base case are rising stock prices until a recession or credit crunch in the first copule of month in 2024. The RLI will detect this and warn us accordingly. For now a more defensive approach for stocks is suitable. 

Risk Level System

Risk Level 0 (White):
All good, risk on
80% Stocks, 10% Bonds, 10% Cash

Risk Level 1 (Blue):
Not everything is perfect
60% Stocks, 20% Bonds, 20% Cash

Risk Level 2 (Yellow):
There are serious reasons to be concerned
40% Stocks, 30% Bonds, 30% Cash

Risk Level 3 (Red):
Danger of a crash, risk off
20% Stocks, 40% Bonds, 40% Cash