Last Signal
Since 20.11.2023: Risk Level 1 (Blue)
The macro environment remains negative, with various signals from the RLI increasingly confirming this. My base case scenario is for rising prices until a recession in the USA or a credit event (credit crunch) in the spring of 2024. Especially noteworthy is the BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program) by the FED, which was launched after the banking crisis last year to support banks that have been struggling due to high interest rates. This program is set to expire in March. The RLI will identify emerging problems in a timely manner and adjust the risk level accordingly. At the moment, a somewhat defensive allocation to stocks is advised.
Risk Level System
Risk Level 0 (White):
All good, risk on
80% Stocks, 10% Bonds, 10% Cash
Risk Level 1 (Blue):
Not everything is perfect
60% Stocks, 20% Bonds, 20% Cash
Risk Level 2 (Yellow):
There are serious reasons to be concerned
40% Stocks, 30% Bonds, 30% Cash
Risk Level 3 (Red):
Danger of a crash, risk off
20% Stocks, 40% Bonds, 40% Cash
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