Last Signal
Since 20.11.2023: Risk Level 1 (Blue)
The macro environment is still negative, and various signals from the RLI are now increasingly confirming this. My base case is rising prices leading up to a recession in the USA or a credit event (credit crunch) in spring 2024. The main thing to keep an eye on here is the FED’s BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program). The program was launched after the banking crisis last year and supports banks that have run into difficulties due to high interest rates. This program expires in March. The RLI will detect emerging problems in a timely manner and change the risk level. A defensive allocation to stocks is recommended at the moment.
Risk Level System
Risk Level 0 (White):
All good, risk on
80% Stocks, 10% Bonds, 10% Cash
Risk Level 1 (Blue):
Not everything is perfect
60% Stocks, 20% Bonds, 20% Cash
Risk Level 2 (Yellow):
There are serious reasons to be concerned
40% Stocks, 30% Bonds, 30% Cash
Risk Level 3 (Red):
Danger of a crash, risk off
20% Stocks, 40% Bonds, 40% Cash
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