Last Signal
Since 20.11.2023: Risk Level 1 (Blue)
The macro enviroment is still nevative. Different signals of the RLI ar starting to confirm that. My base case are rising stock prices until a recession or credit crunch in the first copule of month in 2024. The RLI will detect this and warn us accordingly. For now a more defensive approach for stocks is suitable.
Risk Level System
Risk Level 0 (White):
All good, risk on
80% Stocks, 10% Bonds, 10% Cash
Risk Level 1 (Blue):
Not everything is perfect
60% Stocks, 20% Bonds, 20% Cash
Risk Level 2 (Yellow):
There are serious reasons to be concerned
40% Stocks, 30% Bonds, 30% Cash
Risk Level 3 (Red):
Danger of a crash, risk off
20% Stocks, 40% Bonds, 40% Cash
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